The last 1 year was a volatile period for the stock market. Though the Nifty is around 300 points or 3% higher on a year on year basis (as on February 13, 2019), the 52 week high and low ranged from 11,760 to 9,950 (deviation of nearly 20%). The near term outlook on the market is a little uncertain due to a number of global risk factors. There are concerns of earnings slowdown in the US, economic slowdown in China, US / China trade wars and the global consequences thereof, uncertainty about the form of Brexit, crude price outlook etc. Among local factors, the biggest is the political risk, with the possibility of hung Parliament after the upcoming Lok Sabha elections weighing on foreign institutional investors. Though the market has been range bound for the last few months, in our view, volatility is likely to stay in the near term.
Asset allocation is of utmost importance for investors to deal with market volatility. Asset allocation ensures liquidity, optimizes portfolio risk and provides stability, and helps investors achieve their short term, medium term and long term financial goals, irrespective of market conditions. From an asset allocation perspective, debt mutual funds are good investment options in volatile markets. The primary investment objective in debt funds is income and risk limitation. In this blog post, we will discuss why debt mutual funds are good investment options in volatile markets and which debt funds should investors consider in such conditions.
Debt mutual funds are mutual fund schemes which invest in debt and money market securities like commercial papers, certificates of deposits, non-convertible debentures, treasury bills, Government securities (G-Secs) etc. These securities pay a fixed interest rate (also known as coupon rate) to investors through the tenor of the security and the face value (principal amount) upon maturity. Since these securities are contractually obligated to pay interest, the risk of these investments are much lower than equity, where the management is under no obligation to pay dividends. Furthermore, if you hold a debt security to maturity, the issuer is obligated to pay you the face value on maturity (assuming no default), unlike stocks whose prices are market driven.
Investors should note however that, debt mutual funds are also subject to market risks and cannot give assured or risk free returns. Debt and money market securities trade in the capital market and their market prices are subject to interest rate and credit risk. If interest rates rise, prices of debt securities will fall and vice versa. Similarly, if the credit rating of a security declines, its price will fall and vice versa. Unless you hold debt or money market security till maturity, you will be subject to these risks. But since debt securities are contractually obligated to pay coupons (interest) and face value (principal), in absence of default the risk in debt funds is much lower than equity funds. In the last one year short and low duration debt funds gave 6.5 to 7% average returns, while most equity fund categories gave negative returns.
2017 and 2018 were difficult years for the bond markets, but the conditions seem to be turning favorable as discussed above. In 2018 very short duration funds like overnight funds, liquid funds etc. were the top performing debt mutual fund categories. But with expectations of further easing in interest rates, low to medium duration funds can outperform in the near to medium term due to price appreciation of bonds (with yield declines). The yield curve (term structure of interest rates of bonds of different maturities) was much flatter 6 months ago, but it has been steepening since then and longer duration bonds look better from a risk return trade-off standpoint.
However, you should remember that the inflexion in the yield trajectory took place just 3 – 4 months back. Given the backdrop of global risk factors discussed at the beginning of this post, there are still significant concerns in our view about the RupeeDollar exchange rate, which can have an impact on bond yields. Therefore, for investors with conservative or moderately conservative risk appetites, low duration and short duration debt mutual funds are more suitable investment choices compared to long duration or even medium duration debt mutual funds. Investors should note that, longer the duration of a debt fund, higher is the interest rate risk.
Conclusion
In this blog post, we discussed why debt mutual funds are good investment options in the current volatile market conditions. Volatility may last for some time and therefore, you must pay attention towards your asset allocation. Debt mutual funds will provide stability and also income to your investment portfolio in these volatile conditions. Debt mutual funds are also much more tax efficient than traditional fixed income investments. In this post, we also discussed the types of debt mutual funds, which will be suitable for you in current economic conditions after taking into considerations the local and global risk factors; ultra-short duration fund, low duration fund and short duration funds have low interest risk and can benefit from high yields. We discussed with you 3 funds from the SBI Mutual Fund stable which can be good investment options. You should discuss with your financial advisor, if these schemes are suitable for your investment needs.
Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risk, read all scheme related documents carefully.