Volatility is the statistical measure of fluctuations in price of an asset. In 1953, Nobel Prize winning economist Henry Markowitz introduced the concept of volatility as a measure of investment risk. Volatility is of great significance to traders in the stock market, especially those who trade in derivatives (futures and options). However, volatility and risk have very different connotations for investors. Legendary investor Warren Buffet said, “Volatility is far from synonymous with risk. Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing”.
In this article, we will try to understand what causes volatility, what impact it has on equity market, mistakes to avoid in volatile markets and how you should ride volatility.
You may also like to read: How to deal with volatility
You can see in the chart below that stock market underwent through several deep corrections in the past 20 years. However, it is important to note that Nifty 50 TRI gave 11.6% CAGR returns over the last 20 years. Let us try to understand the causes of volatility.
Source: National Stock Exchange (01.01.2000 to 31.10.2020). Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future
In the short term volatility is caused by imbalance between buyers and sellers in the stock market. If there are more sellers than buyers in the markets, the stock prices will fall and vice versa. Change in risk sentiments causes this imbalance. Uncertainty about the future outlook is the primary reason behind increase in risk aversion. The most recent example of extreme volatility caused by sudden risk aversion is the market crash in March 2020 caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic – Nifty fell by 35% (see the above chart). Volatility can be caused by other factors as well.
The pace of recovery depends on the nature of volatility. For example, volatility caused by temporary demand and supply imbalance is usually short-lived and the market recovers fairly quickly. On the other hand, the market takes longer to recover from severe economic downturns or recessions. If you understand the nature of volatility, you will be better prepared to ride it.
The Nifty fell nearly 500 points in the two weeks prior to the US Presidential elections. We saw significant intraday volatility during this period. However, the market has clearly welcomed the results of the US elections. Nifty has risen 900 points and is now at its all-time high, since the results showed a clear path to victory for the Democratic presidential candidate. Though the Republicans have filed lawsuits in several states challenging the election results, most market experts expect them to not have any effect on the stock market. Bihar assembly election is another major event on the political calendar, but judging by the market’s response to the exit polls, it may not have a significant impact. As far as COVID is concerned, despite concerns about another wave of infections, the market reacted favourably to the positive news on the vaccine front. Though the mood of the market seems positive, there may be lingering concerns about volatility due to the COVID situation and economic impact thereof.
Let us revisit Warren Buffets quote about volatility and risk not being synonymous. Volatility refers to ups and downs in the market, while risk is the possibility of making a loss when you sell. As you can see in the 20 year price chart of Nifty, the market recovered after each correction and went on to make new highs. Most investors make a loss because they panic in volatile markets and sell. While the book value of your investment will go down in volatile markets, if you wait for the market to recover, you will not make a loss. The longer you remain invested; the lower is your risk of making a loss.
The table below shows the average returns and possibility of making a loss in Nifty for different holding periods over the past 30 years.
Source: Advisorkhoj Research (Period: 30.07.1990 to 08.11.2020). Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future.
Source: Advisorkhoj Research. Nifty 50 TRI as the proxy for equity, SBI average quarterly 1 year FD rates as proxy for fixed income and domestic price of 24 carat gold as proxy for gold. 2020 YTD returns as on 31st October 2020. Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future
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